C7 Soybean Market
By UFSM - Laboratório de Geomática
The C7 Soybean Market application is intended to provide information that can be used to plan a commercialization policy for soybeans by farmers.
The C7 Soybean Market consists of: two environments that allow for different analyzes:
The first one, “Price Formation”, is based on an econometric model and was developed in order to allow the user to make projections for soybean price (without ICMS) based on expectations related to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the exchange rate and the export premium. We emphasize that the projections resulting from these variables explain, on average, 85% of soybean price formation (without ICMS). Therefore, the estimated price may differ by up to 15% from the market price when compared to the current price. As a result, we recommend using projections to explore and better understand medium and long-term trends given by expectations regarding quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Exchange Rate and Export Premium.
The second environment, “Historical Series-Charts”, is formed by: a) Charts with monthly historical series of the average prices practiced in the squares of Maringá / PR, Mogiana / SP, Passo Fundo / RS and Rondonópolis / MT , in R $ / bag, deflated by the General Price Index Internal Availability (IGP-DI); b) CBOT average prices, in US $ / Bushel, deflated by the United States Price Index (IPC-US); c) Export Award with reference in the Port of Paranaguá / PR, in US $ / ton, deflated by the United States Price Index (IPC-US); Real Exchange Rate, resulting from the quotient between the IPC-US and IGP-DI multiplied by the Commercial Dollar.
It is important to note that the grain soybean market is influenced by dynamic factors that are difficult to capture “ex. ante ”by econometric models. In this context, the sudden changes in business decisions that affect the marketing of soybeans by organizations that dominate this market, the weather conditions that generate market expectations and the costs of freight and insurance may reduce the efficiency of the parameters estimated by the available econometric model.
Data sources: Abiove (http://www.abiove.org.br/site/index.php), CBOT (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/), Central Bank of Brazil (http://www.bcb.gov.br/), IPEA (http://www.ipeadata.gov.br/).
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